What if walker wins recall




















A crowd of hundreds gathers on the front steps of the Wisconsin State Capitol after the polls officially closed on the June 5 recall election. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker beat back a recall challenge Tuesday, winning both the right to finish the last two years of his term and a voter endorsement of his strategy to curb state spending, which included eliminating union rights for most public workers.

Minnesota College Republicans have traveled to Hudson, Wis. Democrats and organized labor spent millions to oust Walker but found themselves hopelessly outspent by Republicans from across the country who donated record-setting sums to Walker.

Republicans hope the victory carries over into November and that their get-out-the-vote effort can help Mitt Romney become the first GOP nominee to carry the state since Ronald Reagan in With more than 90 percent of precincts reporting, Walker had nearly 54 percent of the vote, compared with 45 percent for Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, according to unofficial returns tabulated by the Associated Press.

The rising Republican star becomes the first governor in U. Throughout the campaign, Walker maintained his policies set the state on the right economic track. Defeat, he said, would keep other politicians from undertaking such bold moves in the future.

Ryan Lyk, a University student and the state College Republicans chair, said the group views the election as a broader referendum on issues. The campaign also found an effective boogeyman in labor leaders. The attack diverted attention from more politically sympathetic rank-and-file workers, such as teachers who had been highly visible in the protests.

Wisconsin Democrats saw the tactic as class warfare. His closing theme paints Republicans, particularly front-runner Larry Elder, the radio host, as resistant to vaccines and mask mandates. The clear hope is voters take out their frustration over the protracted pandemic on the recall proponents. Protect California by voting no on the Republican recall. How Gavin Newsom went from landslide victory to fighting for his political survival.

But the recall election puts his own future in doubt. For much of his first 18 months in office, Walker considered the recall to be a major threat. His opponents collected more than 1 million signatures to qualify for the ballot, nearly twice as many as they needed. But the GOP found its voters equally engaged. Walker capitalized on the widespread attention to his race, including outsize interest and money pouring in from out-of-state labor unions and conservative advocacy groups that saw the state as a proxy war for labor rights broadly.

Enthusiasm among Republicans became clear about a month before the recall contest. In Wisconsin, a governor facing a recall runs directly against an opponent, another key procedural difference from California, where the ballot is split into two questions on whether Newsom should be recalled, and if so, who would replace him.

Walker in effect ran unopposed in the GOP contest — but received nearly as many votes as all of the Democratic candidates combined.

When the recall vote was held in June, Walker won by 7 percentage points — slightly exceeding his margin from two years earlier — and cemented his political stature. As Californians now weigh in on Newsom, there is more uncertainty about whether he has galvanized the Democratic base as successfully as Walker did.

Early polling showed opposition to the recall far outpacing support, but the race appeared to tighten because Republicans were far more enthused about the election than Democrats. You have to activate those partisan cues. You have to lay out a compelling case to people of what are the stakes if this thing really happens.

The best-case scenario, his advisors envision, is a victory in September sparking a political turnaround like that of Walker, who used the recall as a jumping-off point for his national ambitions. True, said Walker, but it may not be enough for Newsom to simply survive the recall, given how he appeared poised to beat it handily earlier this year. Remarkably, just 8 percent of Wisconsin voters decided on their candidate in the last few days; more than nine in 10 made up their minds before that.

Can Romney capitalize on Scott Walker's win? Both presidential candidates will be targeting the battleground state of Wisconsin this year. Among Wisconsin voters who went to the polls in the recall election, 51 percent said if the presidential election were held today they would vote for President Obama, while 44 percent would back Republican Mitt Romney. Still, with five months to go until the presidential election, it's hard to say what the November electorate in Wisconsin will look like this far out.

Obama beat John McCain by 14 points in Wisconsin in At this point, nearly all Barrett voters 92 percent would support President Obama in the fall, while fewer - 76 percent- of Walker voters plan to back the Republican, Mitt Romney.

Seventeen percent of Walker's supporters said if the presidential election were held today they would vote for President Obama. Voters in Wisconsin also give President Obama the edge on improving the economy -- 42 percent said he would do a better job on that issue, compared to 38 percent who picked Romney.

By a wider margin, voters said the president would do a better job helping the middle class 46 percent , while fewer 37 percent gave Romney the upper hand on that. The economy will surely be on the minds of Wisconsin voters come November. Thirty-six percent of voters in the recall election said their family's financial situation is worse compared to two years ago - nearly twice as many as said better.

Forty-four percent said their family finances are the same. Both candidates received support from similar types of voters as they did in , when they first ran against each other. Women and lower income voters supported Barrett, while men and those with higher incomes voted for Walker.

Votes also fell along partisan lines: 94 percent of Republicans backed Walker, as did 86 percent of conservatives. Barrett received similarly strong support from Democrats 91 percent and liberals 86 percent.



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